Changing Definition of Demonstrated Interest

7/27/2017

Chris Boehm

I sat at a table this May in St. Michaels, Maryland, at an invite only conference of about 30 high school and college professionals listening to admission deans and directors report on the successes of their incoming classes, frantically trying to jot down notes and keep up with the statistics and pick up any subtle anecdotal information that might be valuable. Statistics included the typical application totals and size on incoming classes, along with comments comparing the class size to expectations. There was one additional stat that was emphasized and elaborated on more than any other…yield.

Yield is nothing new, schools have long reported on the percentage of students that accept their invitation. However, it seems a greater emphasis is being placed on the statistic as colleges, independent of selectivity, attempt to improve their ability to predict and even control yield. You see, the ability to predict yield can ultimately help a school improve yield, which can in turn improve selectivity, rankings, and prestige (all very attractive to many prospective students and families).

Schools, more specifically, college admission offices, use many different things to predict enrollment. Predictive models have numerous variables and take up thousands of cells in an Excel file. The most powerful tool in an admission office’s chest is knowledge of interest. Knowing how interested a student is in a particular institution is like knowing an opponent’s cards in a hand of poker. In the past, interest was measured by a campus visit with some extra points (sometimes literally) given for a nice follow-up note. However, as families become savvy to the process, this data point is given less weight in the model and schools are moving toward different measurables (hence the title of the entry). Now schools are using optional essays with questions designed specifically to gage a student’s interest and understanding about a college’s culture and mission, attendance at high school visits and hotel programs, and inquiry emails sent to the admission office to measure the amount of interest a student has in a particular school. Beyond that, it can get a little crazy. A recent PBS News Hour update outlines how some schools use activity on the school’s social media platform to measure interest, using data such as photos posted and friends made. It gets more extreme, companies like Capture assist college’s in measuring interest through behavior analytics. Behavioral analytics at the ground level is calculating the number of clicks students make on school sent emails and the amount of time spent on the school’s website. From there schools can also get into even more big data to study the likelihood of enrollment.

Let’s take a moment to take a step back. Not every school uses demonstrated interest when reviewing applications. Boston College, UVa, and Georgetown make it very clear that they do not track visits and communications. However, the table to the right shows statistics from a National Association for College Admission Counseling (NACAC) survey of college admission deans and directors that shows that 40% of schools consider demonstrated interest to be either ‘Considerably or Moderately Important’ factor in admission decisions.

A review of yield and demonstrated interest wouldn’t be complete without exploring Early Decision. It’s the ultimate way a student can tell a college they are interested, to commit to enroll. We’ve seen an increase in schools instituting ED and ED2, see Villanova and Tulane (whose yield went up 4% this year!). And an increase in the percentage of spots in a freshman class that schools are giving to ED applicants. Some examples from this year are: Lehigh 53%, Bucknell 40%, Duke 50% (+2% from last year), and University of Pennsylvania 55%, and many other schools saw a big increase in ED application, Fordham +7%, Boston University +5%, and Northeastern +7%.

What are we do to with this information? We don’t panic or go to extremes. No need to hire someone to click on emails, send personal notes to 20 admission offices, or start visiting colleges in 7^th grade. It’s important to know that this is an adjustment in how college admission offices do business. Viewing it optimistically, colleges are trying to find out who is genuinely interested in their schools and is a good fit. These are the same messages that college counselors use when talking with students. So, it requires students to take a chapter from the college admission’s book and be more selective themselves. It’s going to become more difficult, even impossible, to gain admission to numerous reach schools because a student cannot genuinely have 10 schools at the top of their list, and if they try to say they are, an admission office is now equipped to predict that this isn’t true. Instead it’s important to remain sane and use the knowledge you’ve gained from learning about the process to make good decisions about your search and application process.

Words of wisdom:

Visit schools early in the junior year in order to create priorities concerning location, setting, academic program, size, environment, and other important factors to you. Have discussion as a family as to why your priorities are important to you and why a school FITS, the ultimate goal being to articulate genuine interest.
Visit schools of varying selectivity based upon your academic credentials (GPA/test scores).
Send the nice follow-up email to an admission office after visiting a school you like.
Research schools that are on the top of your list. Read their mission, it’s important to understand how a school views itself.
Be open to school suggestions from your College Counselor.
The end goal is to have a balanced list of six to eight (some likely, some target, a reach or two) by the beginning of the senior year that you are interested in and can articulate that interest.
Remember, you are only going to enroll at one school.

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